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 Over the next few months we will continue to be swamped by many conflicting announcements that will generate uncertainty and fear. Even though it does not have any scientific foundation, some of this news provokes considerable doubts.
We advise you to use your critical ability, to analyze the data and reflect on the matter calmly. When economic interests worth billions and considerable drug orders are at stake, often the truth is not what it appears to be on the surface.
Many people are frightened and therefore ask for help or search confused the Minister of Health's websites and the newspapers; nevertheless they cannot find any reassurance in the contradictions that they read.
This is the reason why in this article we try to provide a rational means for helping everybody to develop the tools that are necessary to understand, prevent or treat this mysterious bird flu epidemic.
In the paragraph DATA we explain that transmission to man is rare, that even the greatly feared Ebola virus can be stopped (and as a consequence so can the influenza virus) and that there is no vaccine available so far: so, we fear that the Italian population is being invited to test it on behalf of others.
In the paragraph PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT on the other hand, we explain how the vaccine against the influenza may even spread, rather than control, the pandemic and that the vaccines or drugs, developed so far, are experimental. We fear that this may really become the opportunity to test the new vaccine against the pandemic on conscientious Italians who have already ordered it even though it does not exist yet.
In the paragraph OTHER DOUBTS we talk about the conflict concerning the recommended age for the administration of the vaccine. A number of studies rule out the administration to children under two years of age, while the Minister eagerly supports it ; moreover, we point out that, from a few months ago, American producing companies are no longer criminally liable in the event of damage caused by the vaccines.
Data
The possibility that the H5N1 virus may be transmitted to man is fairly small. Moreover, as reported by very recent scientific papers published in NEJM, human-to-human transmission is possible, although extremely limited.
Also a paper published on February 2005 in Emergency Infectious Diseases points out that the infection was not transmitted to any of the nursing staff or physicians who provided care to people infected with the H5N1 virus, even though they had not taken any preventive drugs.
The 2003 Dutch experience with another bird virus did not cause a pandemic, notwithstanding the fact that it had the same features as the current form of the virus.
One of the most recent WHO bulletins, issued on 16th of September, specifically reports the existence of some cases, all connected with the consumption of infected meat and the closeness to the chickens, but it denies, and this is confirmed by blood tests, that the virus was transmitted to the two daughters of a man who died of the H5N1 virus in July.
It is important to consider that the case of three people who died of respiratory symptoms has been reported by the press to Italians on vacation, as an effect of the serious diffusive character of the virus. Indeed, the WHO has pointed out that it was not the virus that provoked the death of the three people. Still, the fear has not disappeared.
We know that the symptoms of this possible influenza are the typical symptoms of any form of flu (high temperature, muscular pain, discomfort), but the factor facilitating the seriousness of the infection (pneumonia) is connected with a collapse of the immune system (technically, it is known as a lymphopenia, i.e. a definite reduction in the number of lymphocytes, a specific type of white blood cells).
Therefore, the defense factor is maintaining a high immunologic response. We should consider, for example, what prevents a powerful threat, such as the Ebola virus, from spreading outside Africa and completely killing the western world. As we have already reported on our website, Ebola stops when it encounters well-nourished people with all the right minerals available, and therefore with an immune system able to manage an appropriate defense against infection.
On the other hand, the number of uncertainties concerning the vaccines is really considerable. At present, there is no vaccine against a possible pandemic caused by the H5N1 virus (but our Minister declares having already ordered 35 million doses of this vaccine!!!)
First of all, there are at least two different types of this virus (there is also a H9N2 virus), exhibiting different features. Studies on animals confirm that it is possible to reduce the transmission among animals for periods ranging from 30 to 40 weeks, without eradicating the virus (read here and here).
A study, which the American FDA also took part in, hypothesizes a new typology of vaccine that may be appropriate against all the different influenza forms, but the very first experimental ideas (of course there are no results yet) were only published in July 2005 and this could be the vaccine to which the Minister Storace refers in his announcements.
Therefore, it would be a highly experimental vaccine, with no field trial at all, that would be kindly tested (and well paid for) by the Italian people.
Public announcements
Just like with SARS, which at the end of its action caused globally less than a thousand deaths, i.e. almost the same number of deaths provoked by traffic in a single European weekend (see the WHO bulletin), but paralyzed trade in China and Canada for at least a year and a half, public announcements risk producing greater effects than those related solely to the clinical aspects.
At present, the Minister of Health is broadcasting strange announcement in his website. As for the recommendation of the vaccine against the flu, we should consider a scientific paper, which seriously challenges its usefulness.
This paper was already pointed out by Eurosalus in January 2005 and highlights the possible risk of transmission of the H5N1 virus among animals that received a vaccine against other viral infections.
Undoubtedly, the old statement, that it is useful to get vaccinated against the influenza, could be proved totally wrong. There is, if anything, a real risk, according to scientific research, that the vaccine against the influenza may spread rather than control the transmission. We do not know the truth, but we think it would be appropriate for the Minister Storace to carefully consider his public pronouncements and avoid only welcoming the recommendations of those who directly or indirectly produce the vaccines.
Moreover, it is also important to honestly report that the 35 million doses of the vaccine against the H5N1 virus are only theoretical and that the vaccine would be, to say the least, highly experimental, and for reasons of propriety, it would be useful to at least mention the possible detrimental effects of "normal" vaccines, in order to highlight the possible risks that could be caused by new and experimental vaccines.
As regards the use of antiviral drugs, which since March 2005 has been presented as a possible solution to the problem, there are plenty of doubts.
And it is not pure chance that studies are contradictory and not definite. A specific Australian study, outlining the picture of the situation, points out that in recent years research on antiviral drugs stopped for economic reasons and that the emergence of the H5N1 virus (and particularly the way reports about it have spread) has reactivated the economic interests of the producing companies.
It is something we should keep in mind, especially if we consider that politicians react positively to such recommendations even though later they prove to be unsuccessful.
Sometimes, during the pre-electoral phase, what is important is to support those who will support you! As a matter of fact, in April 2005 the zanamivir was prepared in the laboratories of the Glaxo company, then in August (critical report on antiviral drugs, in Italian language) the efficacy and supply limits for these drugs were pointed out. In September, only one month later, according to the public announcement and its melodramatization, 1 million doses of the vaccine were not sufficient to stop the pandemics (according solely to theoretical studies) and the need to use up to 3 million doses of the vaccine was supported (article in Nature, again it is exclusively theoretical/statistical).
We should not forget that these are theoretical estimates, but undoubtedly the pharmaceutical companies - even though worried about the possible development of the current situation - can already rely on the money offered in order to ensure the supply of the vaccine and will make good profits in the future.
Further doubts about the vaccines
Further doubts are raised if we consider that the vaccines against the influenza have been deemed useless for children under the age of two years, information reported by the magazine Lancet only at the end of the previous vaccination campaign; but what is most important is to contemplate the responsibilities of the producing companies.
Recently, in January 2005, George W. Bush, President of the United States, ratified in the Protecting America in the War on Terror Act, part of an overall plan to strengthen domestic powers as a result of the war on terror, the non responsibility of the vaccines and drugs producing companies. As a matter of fact, those willing to claim for damages need to document a fraudulent willingness in the research and preparation of the products!
This topic is well debated in Sepp Hasslberger, while the original text of the S3 Bill /chapter 1, section 131 B-4-a) can be found by clicking on the link http://www.theorator.com/bills109/s3.html.
It is worth questioning what the American government is currently doing. Since it is the country that produces vaccines and drugs for an extremely worried rest of the world, it should probably be researching vaccines and drugs; on the contrary, according to what Mike Davis, expert in the field, reports in the Asian Times, the US seems to be rather calm.
If you wish to receive information from the Ministry of Health, you can click on the following links, for general information or in particular for questions about the vaccine, where it states, contrary to what the Minister declared, that:
Q - «Is there a vaccine against the bird flue available?»
A - «No, at the present time there are no vaccines available for human use against the virus H5N1. The WHO, in the laboratories that are part of the global influenza surveillance network, is working to produce a prototype virus which will be the basis for the production of a specific vaccine.»
We may wonder then, why we bought 35 million doses!
Q - “Is the vaccine against the influenza useful?”
A - “Yes, even though it does not ensure specific protection against the type A strain of the H5N1 influenza virus, it is useful because it helps in strengthening the immune system. The influenza viruses can infect different animal species, besides man; therefore if a double infection (an infection caused by two or more types of influenza virus) takes place in the same person, phenomena of genetic recombination may emerge and develop new subtypes which may be potentially epidemic or pandemic.”
We wonder if the Minister read what happened to the tigers infected by the virus H5N1.
Unfortunately, so far our uncertainties remain unanswered.
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